Intergenerational mobility reveals how economic advantage and disadvantage are passed on from one generation to the next. In this presentation, an ACEIR PhD candidate shares her work-in-progress on the geography of intergenerational mobility in South Africa, which focuses on variation in intergenerational mobility across district municipalities and former homeland areas. Using nationally representative survey data, she estimates and contrasts three measures of mobility: the intergenerational elasticity coefficient (IGE), the rank–rank slope, and the p25 measure of absolute upward mobility.

The results show that mobility is low at the national level (IGE of 0.50, rank–rank slope of 0.307) comparable to other highly unequal economies. There is also evidence of spatial variation across district municipalities and across former homeland areas. Some former homelands and district municipalities offer better prospects for upward mobility while others function as mobility traps.

By examining some of the area correlates of absolute upward mobility, the analysis attempts to highlight possible mechanisms that contribute to this spatial heterogeneity in mobility outcomes. Children raised in districts with higher crime rates, weaker family structures, and lingering apartheid-era disadvantages face lower mobility. In contrast, two-parent households and access to better-quality schools—especially those with lower teacher–learner ratios—are associated with stronger upward mobility.

About the speaker

Aarifah Razak is a PhD candidate in the School of Economics at the University of Cape Town. Her research explores how inequality, spatial context, and gender dynamics influence mobility outcomes in South Africa.