Demographic challenges for global labor markets in the 21st century, Africa in a changing world

David Lam, Murray Leibbrandt
ACEIR working paper no. 11, November 2023.
Published jointly with the Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town (SALDRU working paper no. 303).

The world is projected to add 2.5 billion people to the total population and 1.1 billion people to the working-age population between 2020 and 2100. Almost all the additional working-age people will be added in sub-Saharan Africa, a dramatic change from previous decades, when the growth of the working-age population was concentrated in Asia. This paper analyses the demography of the African labour force in the coming decades using the latest UN population projections. The authors show that by 2050, Africa will be the only region in the world with a growing working-age population; and it will be the only region in which the ratio of dependents to working-age population is falling. On the demand side, Africa needs to produce two million jobs per month by 2040 to keep up with the growth of the working-age population. This rate of job creation is similar to Asia’s during the period in which its working-age population was growing at similar rates. Still, this remains a daunting challenge for Africa in the coming decades. Read more